| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2014). Improving forecasting accuracy of project earned value metrics: Linear modeling approach. Journal of Management in Engineering, 30(2), 135-145. (SCI, 2013 Impact Factor: 1.111, Ranking: 22/43 in Engineering, Industrial) |
| 年度： | 2014 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Journal of Management in Engineering
|
| 摘要： | Accurately forecasting earned value (EV) metrics is a pivotal component of planning and controlling projects. Despite many approaches to forecasting EV metrics, most studies focus on improving the accuracy of estimating final cost and duration. Relatively few improve upon the use of planned value (PV) to predict earned value (EV) and actual cost (AC). Thus, this paper takes a new approach to increasing the prediction accuracy of EV and AC by further linearly modeling PV. Data from 131 sample projects verify that a new data-transformation formula significantly improves the correlations between PV and EV and between PV and AC. A mathematical modeling procedure then develops EV and AC forecasting models based on PV for four sample projects. Finally, the study evaluates out-of-sample forecasting accuracy using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the proposed methodology improves forecasting accuracy by an average 13.00% and 19.93% for EV and AC, respectively. |
| 關鍵字： | |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L., Chen, W. T., and Wei, N. C. (2011). "Developing a cost-payment coordination model for project cost flow forecasting." Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 17(4), 494-509. (SCI, 2010 Impact Factor: 3.711) |
| 年度： | 2011 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
|
| 摘要： | Project operating cash flow forecasting techniques have evolved to enable detailed predictions relating to individual projects. These techniques, principally the cost-schedule integration (CSI) model, extensively use project cost estimates and schedule data. Despite CSI models having gained general acceptance, they have not been without criticism. Such criticism includes the problems of differential schedules between network and cost activities, ignoring the important information of payment conditions composed of payment lags, components, and frequency, and the combined adverse effects of payment irregularity and uniform distribution of cost over time. To resolve and alleviate these problems, this study develops a set of cost-payment coordination mechanisms for creating interaction among cost and payment activities. These mechanisms are then developed into a model. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing the historical flows on two case projects. The result shows that the patterns of predicted cost flows created with the model closely match those of the historical flows. |
| 關鍵字： | Project management; Cost control; Cost analysis; Forecasting |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L., (2009). "Model for predicting financial performance of development and construction corporations." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(11), 1190-1200. (SCI). |
| 年度： | 2009 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
|
| 摘要： | Performance forecasting is central to aligning an organization’s operations with its strategic direction. Despite the panoply of approaches to performance predictions, relatively few published studies address model development of financial performance predictions for the construction industry. By analyzing the preceding relationship between financial and economic variables and financial performance, this paper proposes an innovative approach to predicting firm financial performance. First, hypothesis tests using data for 42 development and construction corporations listed in the construction sector of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1997 Q1 and 2006 Q4 uncover useful relationships between financial performance and financial and economic variables. Second, based on these relationships, a three-stage mathematical modeling procedure is used for cross-sectional model estimation, which is subsequently refined to create firm-specific financial performance forecasting models for four sample firms. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the cross-sectional model explains 78.9% of the variation in the cross-sectional performance data, and the MAPE values in the forecasting models range from 9.54% to 19.69%. |
| 關鍵字： | Financial management; Performance evaluation; Forecasting; Models; Time series analysis |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, C. I., Chen, H. L., and Chen, S. P. (2008) "Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model NGBM (1,1)." Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 13(6), 1194-1204.
). |
| 年度： | 2008 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
|
| 摘要： | The traditional Grey Model is easy to understand and simple to calculate, with satisfactory accuracy, but it is also lack of flexibility to adjust the model to acquire higher forecasting precision. This research studies feasibility and effectiveness of a novel Grey model together with the concept of the Bernoulli differential equation in ordinary differential equation. In this research, the author names this newly proposed model as Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM). The NGBM is nonlinear differential equation with power index n. By controlling n, the curvature of the solution curve could be adjusted to fit the result of one time accumulated generating operation (1-AGO) of raw data. One extreme case from Grey system textbook is studied by NGBM, and two published articles are chosen for practical tests of NGBM. The results prove the novel NGBM is feasible and efficient. Finally, NGBM is used to forecast 2005 foreign exchange rates of twelve Taiwan major trading partners, including Taiwan. |
| 關鍵字： | nonlinear grey Bernoulli model; grey forecasting; foreign exchange rates |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2007). "Developing cost response models for company-level cost flow forecasting of project-based corporations." Journal of Management in Engineering, 23 (4), pp. 171-181. (SCI). Impact Factor: 0.462 (INDUSTRIAL) |
| 年度： | 2007 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
|
| 摘要： | The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule-Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27% to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04% to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research. |
| 關鍵字： | Cost control, cost analysis, forecasting, models, project management, time series analysis |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L., OBrien, W. J., and Herbsman, Z. (2005). "Assessing the accuracy of cash flow models: the significance of payment conditions." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(6), pp. 669-676. (SCI) Impact Factor: 0.471 (INDUSTRIAL) (The abstract of this paper has also been selected as part of the Materials Business File Abstracts database from CSA.) |
| 年度： | 2005 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
|
| 摘要： | Cash flow forecasting methods have evolved to allow detailed predictions for individual projects. These methods, principally the cost-schedule integration (CSI) technique, make extensive use of project estimate and schedule data. An implicit assumption of these methods has been that accuracy is largely a function of the quality of data available to the model. To the authors’ knowledge, there has been no assessment of the ability of project specific cash-flow models to accurately predict cash flows given accurate input data. This paper makes two contributions. First, two complementary methods are presented – pattern matching logic and factorial analysis – that provide an ability to assess the accuracy of cash flow models. Second, through demonstration of these methods using data from two projects, a critique is made of the ability of existing CSI models to accurately predict cash flows. The paper concludes by recommending extensions of CSI models to include more detailed payment conditions, including differential payment lags, components for materials and labor, and payment frequency. A further conclusion is the call for more research to better understand the balance between managers’ need for information and the ability of predictive models to provide that information. |
| 關鍵字： | Cost Control, Cost Analysis, Computerized Scheduling, Critical Path Methods, Forecasting, Project Planning |
| 著作名稱： | Influence of supply chain risks on project financial performance |
| 年度： | 2023 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Production Economics
|
| 摘要： | Facing more frequent and severe disruptions, risk management in supply chains (SCs) has received considerable attention and extensive research. Yet, insights on how changes in SC risks (SCRs) influence project financial performance remain underdeveloped. In this study, we investigate the relationships among industry-specific risk, organizational risk, project SCRs, and project financial performance from the viewpoint of marginal risk product (MRP) using longitudinal project survey data. Structural equation modeling shows that project SCR factors completely negatively mediate the connections among industry-specific risk, organizational risk, and project financial performance. The presence of this full mediation implies that industry-specific risk and organizational risk only indirectly negatively influence project financial performance. Further analysis reveals that industry-specific risk influences project financial performance mainly through project internal-process integration risk, whereas organizational risks influence is mostly through project demand and internal-process integration risks. A direct implication is that managers who want to increase project financial performance by enhancing the management performance of industry-specific risk and organizational risk should also enhance the management performance of project demand and internal process integration risks to magnify their impact. Analysis also shows that project internal process integration risk and project demand risk possess the largest and the next-largest negative MRP effects on project financial performance, respectively, despite both having no indirect effects. Future research should further clarify the nonsignificant mediating effects of project supply risk on industry-specific risk and organizational risk, although possible explanations are provided. |
| 關鍵字： | Project management; Supply chain risk; Project financial performance; Risk management; Decision-making |
| 著作名稱： | Impact of Industry 4.0 on Corporate Financial Performance: A Moderated Mediation Model |
| 年度： | 2021 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Sustainability
|
| 摘要： | Many studies advance the contemporary technologies of Industry 4.0. However, relatively little is known about how Industry 4.0 affects corporate financial performance. Using a survey, bootstrap sampling, and structural-equation modeling, this study evaluates the moderated mediation effects of Industry 4.0 maturity on financial performance. The results show that Industry 4.0 maturity significantly affects internal business process performance (IBPP), which influences customer performance through the mediating effect of supply chain performance (SCP), and IBPP and SCP affect financial performance fully through the mediating effect of customer performance. The results also show that Industry 4.0 maturity moderates the positive relationship between customer performance and financial performance. Customer performance and IBPP have the largest direct and total effects on financial performance in the context of Industry 4.0 implementation, respectively. The results indicate that Industry 4.0 magnifies the potential returns to companies mainly through IBPP, SCP, and customer performance. This study offers an enhanced understanding of the financial implications of Industry 4.0 implementation and provides insights into the factors through which Industry 4.0 maturity influences financial performance. |
| 關鍵字： | Industry 4.0 maturity; smart factory manufacturing; financial performance; performance measurement |
| 著作名稱： | Impact of communication on capital project performance: A mediated moderation model |
| 年度： | 2021 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Sustainability
|
| 摘要： | Many studies demonstrate the importance of communication in project performance. However, little is known about how project communication exerts its effects on the outcomes of capital projects that have a large impact on environmental and economic sustainability. Using a longitudinal survey and bootstrap-based structural-equation modeling, this study uncovers how project competencies and team innovative behavior affect the relationship between project communication and capital project performance. This study collects repeated measures from project managers at two time points: immediately after the initiation and planning stages end and immediately after project completion. Excluding responses with missing data, this study’s sample includes 108 capital projects. This study finds that project technical and managerial competencies completely mediate the relationship between project communication and project performance. This study also finds that team innovative behavior affects project performance through the mediating effect of project technical competence. Team innovative behavior also moderates the relationship between project technical competence and project performance. Project communication has the largest effect on project performance despite having the smallest direct effect; project managerial competence possesses the next-largest effect on project performance despite having the largest direct effect. This study discusses the managerial and research implications. |
| 關鍵字： | project communication; project performance; technical competence; managerial competence; innovative behavior; longitudinal research |
| 著作名稱： | Early identification of distressed capital projects: a longitudinal approach |
| 年度： | 2021 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Managing Projects in Business
|
| 摘要： | Purpose – Previous studies investigate factors affecting project outcomes. Yet, it has not been fully explored regarding which factors differentiate healthy projects from distressed projects in the early stage of the project delivery process. This study investigates the links between project-planning factors and project outcomes in the closing phase.
Design/methodology/approach – We use a longitudinal survey method to examine the predictability of project-planning factors. Subsequently, we employ confirmatory factor analysis and hierarchical logit regression to develop project-distress classification models.
Findings – Analysis of 90 capital projects shows that performance variation in the project planning phase explains a substantial portion of project distress at completion. Subsequent univariate logit analysis shows that S5 (quality of scope control system) and Tn1 (new practices and technologies) variables have the strongest predictive abilities. Hierarchical logit analysis further shows that a combination of 15 metrics in the project-distress measurement model produces strong and stable predictive power.
Research limitations/implications – This study assesses how well performance variation in the project-planning phase predicts project distress before construction phase. It does not assume the reported results apply to all types of projects. Nonetheless, future studies could generalize our findings by incorporating more types of projects.
Originality/value – This study takes a systematic approach, combining longitudinal survey, measurement theory, and hierarchical logit analysis to identify distressed projects early, offering managers an opportunity to take early corrective actions. Practitioners may use this approach to investigate other types of projects and further refine the project-distress classification model into a project-specific model, thereby reflecting projects’ unique characteristics. |
| 關鍵字： | Project management, Project distress, Performance measurement, Logit analysis |
| 著作名稱： | Supply chain risk’s impact on corporate financial performance |
| 年度： | 2018 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Operations & Production Management
|
| 摘要： | Purpose – Researchers have long sought to understand how risks in supply chains (SCs) affect firm performance. Yet, they have not fully subjected claims of how SC risks affect firm financial performance to theoretical and empirical scrutiny. In this study, we investigate the links between SC risks and firm financial performance.
Design/methodology/approach – We analyze how SC risks affect firm financial performance from the perspective of marginal financial performance (MFP) using survey and financial statement data. We employ structural equation modeling to examine our hypotheses using 106 Taiwanese listed companies across 20 industries.
Findings – Our findings regarding the importance of industry-specific risk, organizational risk, internal business process risk, and demand risk are consistent with prior studies. We find that demand risk has an MFP of -0.20, the highest negative effect among the risk variables. Our findings also show that industry-specific risk possesses an MFP of -0.16, the second-highest negative effect, despite having no direct effect on financial performance.
Research limitations/implications – This paper examines how SC risks affect MFP via combining survey and financial statement data. It does not assume the reported MFP estimates apply to all businesses in other countries. However, future research could triangulate our findings.
Originality/value – This study combines survey and financial data to analyze how SC risks affect firm financial performance. Specifically, it provides a methodology for estimating quantitative cause-effect relationships between SC risk and firm financial performance, an important topic that receives less research interest in the field of supply-chain management. |
| 關鍵字： | Risk and performance, Financial performance, Risk measurement, Supply chain risk |
| 著作名稱： | Goal orientations, leader-leader exchange, trust, and the outcomes of project performance |
| 年度： | 2018 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Project Management
|
| 摘要： | Previous research demonstrates the importance of goal orientation, leader-leader exchange, and trust in work engagement and performance. However, how the relationships among these three variables influence project performance remains unclear. Complementing and extending prior research, this study uncovers how leader-leader exchange and trust affect the relationship between goal orientations and project performance. A cross-sectional analysis of 320 auditing project managers from 50 financial service companies shows that leader-leader exchange and trust mediate how goal orientations influence project performance. We also find that trust further moderates the effect of leader-leader exchange on project performance. Subsequent quantitative analysis of structural equation modeling reveals that leader-leader exchange has the largest direct effect on project performance; team-mastery goal orientation has the second-largest direct effect but the largest total effect. Implications for research and practice are discussed. |
| 關鍵字： | Project performance; Goal orientations; Leader-leader exchange; Trust |
| 著作名稱： | Early Prediction of Project Duration: A Longitudinal Study |
| 年度： | 2018 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Engineering Management Journal
|
| 摘要： | Using Earned Value Management (EVM) protocols, numerous innovative models for the critical task of predicting project duration have been proposed in recent years. Due to the nature of EVM, these models, however, appear to be useful only after the project’s construction phase begins. The objective of this study is to examine the longitudinal relationships between completed project time and project variables performance prior to the construction phase and to model those useful relationships to predict completed project duration. The research results confirm the significance of scope, team, communication, risk, and innovation performance prior to the construction phase and reveal reasonable estimation accuracy and a relatively small difference in prediction rates between in-sample (88.13%) and out-of-sample (85.49%) data. |
| 關鍵字： | Project management, Project duration prediction, Project time performance, Schedule, Performance measurement |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L., Chen, W. T., Lin, Y. L. (2016). "Earned value project management: Improving the predictive power of planned value." International Journal of Project Management, 34(1), 22–29. (SSCI, 2015 Impact Factor: 2.885, Ranking: 29/192 in Management) |
| 年度： | 2016 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Project Management
|
| 摘要： | Earned value project management (EVPM) is an effective tool for managing project performance. However, most studies on extensions and applications of EVPM concentrate on improving final cost and duration estimates rather than improving upon the use of planned value (PV) to predict earned value (EV) and actual cost value (AC). This study proposes a straightforward modeling method for improving the predictive power of PV before executing a project. By using this modeling method, this study develops EV and AC forecasting models for four case projects. Out-of-sample forecasting validation using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) demonstrates that the proposed method improves forecasting accuracy by an average of 23.66% and 17.39%, respectively, for EV and AC. This improvement on PV’s predictive power prior to project execution provides management with more reliable predictive information about EV and AC performance, allowing for effective proactive action to ensure favorable performance outcomes. |
| 關鍵字： | Earned value management; Planned value; Earned value; Actual cost; Prediction |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2015). "Performance measurement and the prediction of capital project failure." International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1393–1404. (SSCI, 2014 Impact Factor: 2.436, Ranking: 33/185 in Management) |
| 年度： | 2015 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Project Management
|
| 摘要： | This paper examines how changes in project-management performance in the execution phase affect project outcomes at completion. While identifying the key determinants of project-management performance is critical, few studies examine discriminatory power of performance variables for predicting capital project failure at completion. Using 130 capital projects and a longitudinal design, this study develops a performance-measurement model based on changes in project-management performance during the execution phase. Subsequent hierarchical logistic-regression analysis reveals a good explanation of the variation in the failure of capital projects and high classification accuracy. Validating out-of-sample data demonstrates that the optimal model provides a reasonably good overall classification rate of 81.54%. Ultimately, our findings suggest that performance changes in the execution phase explain an important part of project outcomes and, more importantly, are useful predictors for project failure. |
| 關鍵字： | Project failure; Project-management performance; Performance measurement; Logit analysis; Longitudinal study |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2014). Innovation stimulants, innovation capacity, and the performance of capital projects. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 15(2), 212-231. (SSCI, 2013 Impact Factor: 0.810, Ranking: 75/111 in Business, 162/333 in Economics) |
| 年度： | 2014 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Journal of Business Economics and Management
|
| 摘要： | Identifying the critical determinants of innovation performance is crucial. However, few studies explore and quantify systematically the relationships between innovation factors and the performance of capital projects. This study of 121 capital projects shows that the relationships among project innovation stimulants, innovation capacity, and project performance are indeed significant. Hierarchical robust regression analyses using a maximum R-square improvement procedure show that technology management has the highest effect on the variation in our project performance data. Validating out-of-sample data demonstrates that our optimal model explains 34.42% of the variation in the performance of capital projects. Ultimately, our findings suggest that project human factors are essential stimulants in innovation performance, which in turn affect the performance of capital projects. Our findings also reveal that the stimulant factors do not have a direct impact on capital project performance, but rather have an indirect impact via project innovation capacity. |
| 關鍵字： | project management, project innovation, project performance, performance measurement, capital project construction, empirical research |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. , Chen, C. I., Liu, C. H., and Wei, N. C. (2013). "Estimating a project’s profitability: A longitudinal approach." International Journal of Project Management, 31(3), 400-410. (SSCI, IF: 1.686, Ranking: 56/172 in Management) |
| 年度： | 2013 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Project Management
|
| 摘要： | Forecasting a project’s financial performance is central to aligning its operations with its strategic direction. Despite the panoply of approaches to predicting project performance, most studies focus on predicting the working capital and fixed capital requirements of projects. Few focus on forecasting profitability in the capital project industry. Thus, this longitudinal study of 121 capital projects identifies key variables in project initiation and planning phases that affect the profitability (return on sales) of completed projects. Subsequent multivariate robust regression analysis shows that the natural logarithm-transformed Scope and Team variables best explain the variation in profitability. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value in the optimal forecasting model is 17.91%. Ultimately, our findings suggest that it is feasible to estimate a project’s profitability before its execution. |
| 關鍵字： | Project performance; Profitability; Return on sales; Forecasting; Robust regression; longitudinal study |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2013). Logit models for early warning of distressed capital projects. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(sup1), 145-167. (SSCI, 2013 Impact Factor: 0.810, Ranking: 75/111 in Business, 162/333 in Economics) |
| 年度： | 2013 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Journal of Business Economics and Management
|
| 摘要： | The focus of this study is to demonstrate how probabilistic models may be employed to provide early warnings for distressed capital projects. While identifying the key determinants of project performance is important, few studies test discriminatory power of variables for predicting distressed capital projects. Thus, this longitudinal study of 121 capital projects identifies key variables in the initiation and planning phases of projects that differentiate between healthy and distressed projects at completion. Subsequent univariate logistic analysis shows that the Quality variable provides the highest univariate classification accuracy. Hierarchical logistic-regression analysis reveals high classification accuracy and relatively small differences in overall classification rates. Out-of-sample forecasting validation demonstrates that the optimal model provides a reasonably good overall classification rate of 85.37%. Ultimately, our findings suggest that it is feasible to discriminate simultaneously between healthy and distressed projects prior to the project execution phase in the capital facility delivery process, providing an early warning of projects in distress. |
| 關鍵字： | capital projects, distressed projects, early warning signs, performance |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2012). "Empirical behavioral analysis of project contractors supply-chain payment terms." Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 17(3), 277-289. (SSCI, 2010 Impact Factor: 2.484, Ranking: 19/103 in Business, 35/144 in Management). |
| 年度： | 2012 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Supply Chain Management: An International Journal
|
| 摘要： | Purpose – Researchers in supply chain (SC) payment management have long sought to understand how project contractors, project owners, specialist contractors, and suppliers behave in the context of negotiating payment terms that improve contractors supply-chain (SC) cash flow.
Design/methodology/approach – Using a single case study approach, semi-structured interviews with contract and project managers identifies behavioral patterns. An analysis of categorical experiments and Spearman’s correlation tests on 118 surveys from Taiwanese project contracting corporations generalizes the case findings.
Findings – The findings suggest that payment terms of project owners, specialists, and suppliers have an important impact on contractors’ working capital. The findings also reveal that contractors pass project owners’ payment terms down to specialists and suppliers, suggesting that contractors behavior depends on that of the project owners.
Research limitations/implications – This paper generalizes the case findings via surveys but does not assume that the reported behavior patterns apply to all business enterprises. Future research could triangulate our findings.
Originality/value – This study combines qualitative and quantitative methods to understand how the project owner-contractor-supplier (or owner-contractor-specialist) triad behaves. Particularly, it focuses on an economic sector—real estate and construction—that receives less research interest than processing or manufacturing.
|
| 關鍵字： | Payment behavior, Supply chain payment, Project Management, Case study. |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2011) "An empirical examination of project contractors supply-chain cash flow performance and owners payment pattern." International Journal of Project Management, 29(5), 604-614. |
| 年度： | 2011 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Project Management,
|
| 摘要： | Supply-chain (SC) cash flow performance is an essential component of SC performance management. Despite the panoply of approaches to SC cash flow modeling, relatively few published studies assess the effect of SC cash flow performance on a project contractor’s financial performance. Little research thus explores the behavioral patterns in the project owner-contractor dyad in the context of payment-term negotiation for improving the SC cash flow performance of a project contractor. Using data from 42 Taiwanese construction project contracting corporations, this paper systematically quantifies the effects of SC cash flow performance on the financial performance of construction project contractors. Further analysis using data from 118 returned, useable surveys reveals important behavioral patterns of project owners regarding payment terms with project contractors during the contracting phase of construction projects. These behavioral patterns provide project contractors with a base for supporting implementation efforts for improving SC cash flow performance. |
| 關鍵字： | Project contractor; Supply chain performance; Cash flows; Financial performance; Payment behavior |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L., (2010). "Using financial and macroeconomic indicators to forecast sales of large development and construction corporations." Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 40(3), 310-331. (SSCI). (The journal is ranked at level A by NSC FINANCE/ACCOUNTING area; 國科會A級期刊). |
| 年度： | 2010 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
|
| 摘要： | Sales forecasting is a pivotal component of a corporation’s planning and control activities. Despite the panoply of approaches to sales forecasting, relatively few published studies in forecasting address firm-specific sales forecasting model development for the construction industry. While there is evidence that events in the macroeconomy significantly affect the construction market, most published studies on construction sales forecasts using S-curve models are unable to account for the economic climate. This study proposes an approach that employs financial and macroeconomic indicators to forecast sales of large development and construction corporations. First, by using data for 37 large development and construction firms listed on the construction sector of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2006, hypothesis tests uncover useful relationships between firm sales and financial and macroeconomic indicators. Second, based on these relationships, a two-stage mathematical modeling procedure is used to develop firm-specific sales forecasting models for three of the sample firms. Finally, out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is evaluated using Theil’s U-statistic and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). |
| 關鍵字： | Sales forecasting; Financial and macroeconomic indicators; Time series; Regression analysis |
| 著作名稱： | Corporate Bankruptcy Measurement and Prediction: Evidence from Publicly Traded US Firms |
| 年度： | 2020 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
Journal of Business & Economic Policy
|
| 摘要： | We develop a bankruptcy classification model combining financial ratio analysis, measurement theory, and logistic analysis from a sample of 258 bankrupt and non-bankrupt public companies in the United States. Transformed financial variables are developed to a bankruptcy classification measurement model using the confirmatory factor analysis, which is then refined to a four variable, logit bankruptcy model. The result shows that the model possesses high classification accuracy and relatively small differences in classification rates between in-sample and out-of-sample as compared to industry-relative analysis. As such, our findings help managers more accurately estimate bankruptcy risk and thus, have a better opportunity to take corrective actions early, enhancing corporate financial sustainability. |
| 關鍵字： | |
| 著作名稱： | Performance measurement and forecasting of failing manufacturing companies |
| 年度： | 2017 |
| 類別： |
期刊論文
International Journal of Management & Computing Sciences
|
| 摘要： | The purpose of this study is to investigate the implications of corporate bankruptcy and to construct a corporate bankruptcy classification model. By using data from 148 bankrupt and non-bankrupt manufacturing firms listed on the 22 industrial sectors of the Taiwan Stock Exchange, hypothesis tests first indentify key financial ratios that distinguish bankrupt from nonbankrupt companies. Second, this study performs an isolated model analysis of each dimension of financial performance construct to evaluate the ability of the set of financial ratios to their associated dimension. Third, this study conducts a hierarchical logistic-regression analysis using a maximum Nagelkerke R-squared improvement procedure to develop optimal bankruptcy classification models from the overall bankruptcy measurement model. The empirical results show that the bankruptcy model possesses high classification accuracy one year before bankruptcy and relatively small differences in classification rates between in-sample and out-of-sample as compared to recent bankruptcy studies. As such, the combined financial ratio analysis and measurement theory with hierarchical logistic-regression analysis appear to be robust for developing bankruptcy models where companies represent a wide cross-section of industries. |
| 關鍵字： | Bankruptcy, Failure, Probability of Default, Forecasting |
| 著作名稱： | Industry 4.0 maturity as a moderator of Industry 4.0’s impact on company financial performance |
| 年度： | 2021 |
| 類別： |
會議論文
|
| 摘要： | Numerous studies advance the contemporary technologies of Industry 4.0. Yet, little is known about how Industry 4.0 implementation influences company financial performance. Using a survey, bootstrap sampling and PROCESS, we investigate links among Industry 4.0 maturity, supply chain performance, and company financial performance. A cross-sectional analysis of 93 companies across 14 industries with 10,000 bootstrap samples reveals that Industry 4.0 maturity positively moderates relationship between supply chain performance and company financial performance. Our research result demonstrates that the relationship between supply chain performance and financial performance is significantly stronger when Industry 4.0 maturity is higher. The finding indicates that Industry 4.0 magnifies the potential financial returns to companies through supply chain performance. We also discuss the managerial and research implications. |
| 關鍵字： | Industry 4.0 maturity, Smart factory manufacturing, Financial performance, Performance measurement |
| 著作名稱： | A multivariate logit model for corporate bankruptcy forecasting |
| 年度： | 2021 |
| 類別： |
會議論文
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| 摘要： | This study develops a bankruptcy prediction model by combining financial ratio analysis and logistic analysis from a sample of 258 bankrupt and non-bankrupt public companies in the United States. First, Mann-Whitney tests reveal a significant difference in the mean values of bankrupt and nonbankrupt companies for 48 financial ratios. Second, based on these financial ratios, a logistic modeling procedure is used to develop bankruptcy classification model. Finally, validation of the bankruptcy model is by holdout-sample Type I accuracy, Type II accuracy, and overall correct classification rates. The research result shows that the logit model possesses high classification accuracy and relatively small differences in classification rates between in-sample and out-of-sample as compared to industry-relative analysis. As such, the model help managers more accurately estimate bankruptcy risk and hence, have a better opportunity to take corrective actions early. |
| 關鍵字： | Bankruptcy, Financial failure, Forecasting, Logit models. |
| 著作名稱： | Development of an industry-relative model for bankruptcy forecasting |
| 年度： | 2021 |
| 類別： |
會議論文
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| 摘要： | This study develops an industry-relative bankruptcy model based on Altman’s Z-score model. Using a balanced combination of accounting- and market-based ratios from 258 bankrupt and nonbankrupt companies, we develop a modified Altman’s Z-score model. The result indicates that a balanced combination of industry-relative accounting- and market-based ratios not only captures different aspects of bankruptcy risk, but also may yield a relatively high classification rate. As such, our findings help managers more accurately estimate bankruptcy risk and thus, have a better opportunity to take corrective actions early, enhancing corporate financial sustainability. |
| 關鍵字： | Bankruptcy, Financial failure, Financial sustainability, Industry-relative ratios |
| 著作名稱： | The influence of early stage project performance: Some project performance and outcome correlate |
| 年度： | 2019 |
| 類別： |
會議論文
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| 摘要： | Understanding how project-management performance in the early stage affects project outcomes is critical to project decision-making process. Our study contributes by revealing how different constructs of project performance are interrelated before the construction phase of a project, and how they will impact project outcomes. Drawing on theories of project and organization management, we develop a project performance-causality model. Our research results suggest that the outcomes of completed projects are significantly directly related to the performance of project innovation and quality in the early stage of project delivery process (i.e., before project construction). Succeeding analysis reveals that communication performance before project construction indirectly affects project performance, which has the largest effect on project outcomes. The research findings indicate that it is practical to estimate marginal project outcomes quantitatively prior to project construction. |
| 關鍵字： | Project outcomes, early stage performance, Survey research, Longitudinal study |
| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2009). "A longitudinal cross-sectional analysis of the relationships between sales flows and financial and macroeconomic variables." International Conference in Management Sciences and Decision Making, pp. 89-96, Taipei, Taiwan. |
| 年度： | 2009 |
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| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2008). "Developing sales response models for technological product sales forecasting." International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems and Web Technologies, pp. 120-126, Orlando, USA |
| 年度： | 2008 |
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| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2007 Section chair). "Integrated cost-payment-schedules model for project cost flow predictions and management." The 8th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering & Management System, p. 238 (11 pages), Kaohsiung, Taiwan. |
| 年度： | 2007 |
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| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. (2007). "Analyzing the contractors’ supply chain payment conditions." Sixth Annual SCALE Conference on Supply Chain Optimization, p.9 (10 pages), Florida, USA. |
| 年度： | 2007 |
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| 著作名稱： | Chen, H. L. and Chen, W. T. (2006) "Combining time series and multivariate regression analysis for sales predictions," Society of Advanced Management (SAM) 2006 International Business Conference, pp.1370-1377, Florida, USA. |
| 年度： | 2006 |
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| 著作名稱： | Chen, W.T., Chen, H.L., Chang, P.-Y., and Wang, T.-J. (2005). "A Performance Evaluation Model for Construction Value Engineering Study." 1st International Conference on Construction Engineering and Management (ICCEM), Seoul, Korea, Oct. 16-19, pp. 347-352. |
| 年度： | 2005 |
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