國立臺南大學專任教師基本資料
姓名陳鴻隆
系所經營與管理學系
職稱教授
校內分機 
EMAILalong314@mail.nutn.edu.tw
辦公室 
網址http://sites.google.com/site/along314/Home/
專長/研究領域專案管理、企業財務、績效管理、供應鏈管理
學位畢業學校國別主修學門修業期間
Ph.D.佛羅里達大學美國工程管理-
服務機關部門系所職稱服務期間
加拿大滑鐵盧大學(University of Waterloo)保險、證券及財務計量研究學院(WatRISQ)訪問客座教授2013/08/01 to 2014/07/31
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2014). Improving forecasting accuracy of project earned value metrics: Linear modeling approach. Journal of Management in Engineering, 30(2), 135-145. (SCI, 2013 Impact Factor: 1.111, Ranking: 22/43 in Engineering, Industrial)
年度:2014
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Accurately forecasting earned value (EV) metrics is a pivotal component of planning and controlling projects. Despite many approaches to forecasting EV metrics, most studies focus on improving the accuracy of estimating final cost and duration. Relatively few improve upon the use of planned value (PV) to predict earned value (EV) and actual cost (AC). Thus, this paper takes a new approach to increasing the prediction accuracy of EV and AC by further linearly modeling PV. Data from 131 sample projects verify that a new data-transformation formula significantly improves the correlations between PV and EV and between PV and AC. A mathematical modeling procedure then develops EV and AC forecasting models based on PV for four sample projects. Finally, the study evaluates out-of-sample forecasting accuracy using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the proposed methodology improves forecasting accuracy by an average 13.00% and 19.93% for EV and AC, respectively.
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著作名稱:Chen, H. L., Chen, W. T., and Wei, N. C. (2011). "Developing a cost-payment coordination model for project cost flow forecasting." Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 17(4), 494-509. (SCI, 2010 Impact Factor: 3.711)
年度:2011
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Project operating cash flow forecasting techniques have evolved to enable detailed predictions relating to individual projects. These techniques, principally the cost-schedule integration (CSI) model, extensively use project cost estimates and schedule data. Despite CSI models having gained general acceptance, they have not been without criticism. Such criticism includes the problems of differential schedules between network and cost activities, ignoring the important information of payment conditions composed of payment lags, components, and frequency, and the combined adverse effects of payment irregularity and uniform distribution of cost over time. To resolve and alleviate these problems, this study develops a set of cost-payment coordination mechanisms for creating interaction among cost and payment activities. These mechanisms are then developed into a model. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing the historical flows on two case projects. The result shows that the patterns of predicted cost flows created with the model closely match those of the historical flows.
關鍵字:Project management; Cost control; Cost analysis; Forecasting
著作名稱:Chen, H. L., (2009). "Model for predicting financial performance of development and construction corporations." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(11), 1190-1200. (SCI).
年度:2009
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Performance forecasting is central to aligning an organization’s operations with its strategic direction. Despite the panoply of approaches to performance predictions, relatively few published studies address model development of financial performance predictions for the construction industry. By analyzing the preceding relationship between financial and economic variables and financial performance, this paper proposes an innovative approach to predicting firm financial performance. First, hypothesis tests using data for 42 development and construction corporations listed in the construction sector of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1997 Q1 and 2006 Q4 uncover useful relationships between financial performance and financial and economic variables. Second, based on these relationships, a three-stage mathematical modeling procedure is used for cross-sectional model estimation, which is subsequently refined to create firm-specific financial performance forecasting models for four sample firms. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the cross-sectional model explains 78.9% of the variation in the cross-sectional performance data, and the MAPE values in the forecasting models range from 9.54% to 19.69%.
關鍵字:Financial management; Performance evaluation; Forecasting; Models; Time series analysis
著作名稱:Chen, C. I., Chen, H. L., and Chen, S. P. (2008) "Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model NGBM (1,1)." Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 13(6), 1194-1204. ).
年度:2008
類別:期刊論文
摘要:The traditional Grey Model is easy to understand and simple to calculate, with satisfactory accuracy, but it is also lack of flexibility to adjust the model to acquire higher forecasting precision. This research studies feasibility and effectiveness of a novel Grey model together with the concept of the Bernoulli differential equation in ordinary differential equation. In this research, the author names this newly proposed model as Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM). The NGBM is nonlinear differential equation with power index n. By controlling n, the curvature of the solution curve could be adjusted to fit the result of one time accumulated generating operation (1-AGO) of raw data. One extreme case from Grey system textbook is studied by NGBM, and two published articles are chosen for practical tests of NGBM. The results prove the novel NGBM is feasible and efficient. Finally, NGBM is used to forecast 2005 foreign exchange rates of twelve Taiwan major trading partners, including Taiwan.
關鍵字:nonlinear grey Bernoulli model; grey forecasting; foreign exchange rates
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2007). "Developing cost response models for company-level cost flow forecasting of project-based corporations." Journal of Management in Engineering, 23 (4), pp. 171-181. (SCI). Impact Factor: 0.462 (INDUSTRIAL)
年度:2007
類別:期刊論文
摘要:The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule-Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27% to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04% to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research.
關鍵字:Cost control, cost analysis, forecasting, models, project management, time series analysis
著作名稱: Chen, H. L., OBrien, W. J., and Herbsman, Z. (2005). "Assessing the accuracy of cash flow models: the significance of payment conditions." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(6), pp. 669-676. (SCI) Impact Factor: 0.471 (INDUSTRIAL) (The abstract of this paper has also been selected as part of the Materials Business File Abstracts database from CSA.)
年度:2005
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Cash flow forecasting methods have evolved to allow detailed predictions for individual projects. These methods, principally the cost-schedule integration (CSI) technique, make extensive use of project estimate and schedule data. An implicit assumption of these methods has been that accuracy is largely a function of the quality of data available to the model. To the authors’ knowledge, there has been no assessment of the ability of project specific cash-flow models to accurately predict cash flows given accurate input data. This paper makes two contributions. First, two complementary methods are presented – pattern matching logic and factorial analysis – that provide an ability to assess the accuracy of cash flow models. Second, through demonstration of these methods using data from two projects, a critique is made of the ability of existing CSI models to accurately predict cash flows. The paper concludes by recommending extensions of CSI models to include more detailed payment conditions, including differential payment lags, components for materials and labor, and payment frequency. A further conclusion is the call for more research to better understand the balance between managers’ need for information and the ability of predictive models to provide that information.
關鍵字:Cost Control, Cost Analysis, Computerized Scheduling, Critical Path Methods, Forecasting, Project Planning
著作名稱:Supply chain risk’s impact on corporate financial performance
年度:2018
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Purpose – Researchers have long sought to understand how risks in supply chains (SCs) affect firm performance. Yet, they have not fully subjected claims of how SC risks affect firm financial performance to theoretical and empirical scrutiny. In this study, we investigate the links between SC risks and firm financial performance. Design/methodology/approach – We analyze how SC risks affect firm financial performance from the perspective of marginal financial performance (MFP) using survey and financial statement data. We employ structural equation modeling to examine our hypotheses using 106 Taiwanese listed companies across 20 industries. Findings – Our findings regarding the importance of industry-specific risk, organizational risk, internal business process risk, and demand risk are consistent with prior studies. We find that demand risk has an MFP of -0.20, the highest negative effect among the risk variables. Our findings also show that industry-specific risk possesses an MFP of -0.16, the second-highest negative effect, despite having no direct effect on financial performance. Research limitations/implications – This paper examines how SC risks affect MFP via combining survey and financial statement data. It does not assume the reported MFP estimates apply to all businesses in other countries. However, future research could triangulate our findings. Originality/value – This study combines survey and financial data to analyze how SC risks affect firm financial performance. Specifically, it provides a methodology for estimating quantitative cause-effect relationships between SC risk and firm financial performance, an important topic that receives less research interest in the field of supply-chain management.
關鍵字: Risk and performance, Financial performance, Risk measurement, Supply chain risk
著作名稱:Goal orientations, leader-leader exchange, trust, and the outcomes of project performance
年度:2018
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Previous research demonstrates the importance of goal orientation, leader-leader exchange, and trust in work engagement and performance. However, how the relationships among these three variables influence project performance remains unclear. Complementing and extending prior research, this study uncovers how leader-leader exchange and trust affect the relationship between goal orientations and project performance. A cross-sectional analysis of 320 auditing project managers from 50 financial service companies shows that leader-leader exchange and trust mediate how goal orientations influence project performance. We also find that trust further moderates the effect of leader-leader exchange on project performance. Subsequent quantitative analysis of structural equation modeling reveals that leader-leader exchange has the largest direct effect on project performance; team-mastery goal orientation has the second-largest direct effect but the largest total effect. Implications for research and practice are discussed.
關鍵字:Project performance; Goal orientations; Leader-leader exchange; Trust
著作名稱:Early Prediction of Project Duration: A Longitudinal Study
年度:2018
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Using Earned Value Management (EVM) protocols, numerous innovative models for the critical task of predicting project duration have been proposed in recent years. Due to the nature of EVM, these models, however, appear to be useful only after the project’s construction phase begins. The objective of this study is to examine the longitudinal relationships between completed project time and project variables performance prior to the construction phase and to model those useful relationships to predict completed project duration. The research results confirm the significance of scope, team, communication, risk, and innovation performance prior to the construction phase and reveal reasonable estimation accuracy and a relatively small difference in prediction rates between in-sample (88.13%) and out-of-sample (85.49%) data.
關鍵字:Project management, Project duration prediction, Project time performance, Schedule, Performance measurement
著作名稱:Chen, H. L., Chen, W. T., Lin, Y. L. (2016). "Earned value project management: Improving the predictive power of planned value." International Journal of Project Management, 34(1), 22–29. (SSCI, 2015 Impact Factor: 2.885, Ranking: 29/192 in Management)
年度:2016
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Earned value project management (EVPM) is an effective tool for managing project performance. However, most studies on extensions and applications of EVPM concentrate on improving final cost and duration estimates rather than improving upon the use of planned value (PV) to predict earned value (EV) and actual cost value (AC). This study proposes a straightforward modeling method for improving the predictive power of PV before executing a project. By using this modeling method, this study develops EV and AC forecasting models for four case projects. Out-of-sample forecasting validation using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) demonstrates that the proposed method improves forecasting accuracy by an average of 23.66% and 17.39%, respectively, for EV and AC. This improvement on PV’s predictive power prior to project execution provides management with more reliable predictive information about EV and AC performance, allowing for effective proactive action to ensure favorable performance outcomes.
關鍵字:Earned value management; Planned value; Earned value; Actual cost; Prediction
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2015). "Performance measurement and the prediction of capital project failure." International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1393–1404. (SSCI, 2014 Impact Factor: 2.436, Ranking: 33/185 in Management)
年度:2015
類別:期刊論文
摘要:This paper examines how changes in project-management performance in the execution phase affect project outcomes at completion. While identifying the key determinants of project-management performance is critical, few studies examine discriminatory power of performance variables for predicting capital project failure at completion. Using 130 capital projects and a longitudinal design, this study develops a performance-measurement model based on changes in project-management performance during the execution phase. Subsequent hierarchical logistic-regression analysis reveals a good explanation of the variation in the failure of capital projects and high classification accuracy. Validating out-of-sample data demonstrates that the optimal model provides a reasonably good overall classification rate of 81.54%. Ultimately, our findings suggest that performance changes in the execution phase explain an important part of project outcomes and, more importantly, are useful predictors for project failure.
關鍵字:Project failure; Project-management performance; Performance measurement; Logit analysis; Longitudinal study
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2014). Innovation stimulants, innovation capacity, and the performance of capital projects. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 15(2), 212-231. (SSCI, 2013 Impact Factor: 0.810, Ranking: 75/111 in Business, 162/333 in Economics)
年度:2014
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Identifying the critical determinants of innovation performance is crucial. However, few studies explore and quantify systematically the relationships between innovation factors and the performance of capital projects. This study of 121 capital projects shows that the relationships among project innovation stimulants, innovation capacity, and project performance are indeed significant. Hierarchical robust regression analyses using a maximum R-square improvement procedure show that technology management has the highest effect on the variation in our project performance data. Validating out-of-sample data demonstrates that our optimal model explains 34.42% of the variation in the performance of capital projects. Ultimately, our findings suggest that project human factors are essential stimulants in innovation performance, which in turn affect the performance of capital projects. Our findings also reveal that the stimulant factors do not have a direct impact on capital project performance, but rather have an indirect impact via project innovation capacity.
關鍵字:project management, project innovation, project performance, performance measurement, capital project construction, empirical research
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. , Chen, C. I., Liu, C. H., and Wei, N. C. (2013). "Estimating a project’s profitability: A longitudinal approach." International Journal of Project Management, 31(3), 400-410. (SSCI, IF: 1.686, Ranking: 56/172 in Management)
年度:2013
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Forecasting a project’s financial performance is central to aligning its operations with its strategic direction. Despite the panoply of approaches to predicting project performance, most studies focus on predicting the working capital and fixed capital requirements of projects. Few focus on forecasting profitability in the capital project industry. Thus, this longitudinal study of 121 capital projects identifies key variables in project initiation and planning phases that affect the profitability (return on sales) of completed projects. Subsequent multivariate robust regression analysis shows that the natural logarithm-transformed Scope and Team variables best explain the variation in profitability. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value in the optimal forecasting model is 17.91%. Ultimately, our findings suggest that it is feasible to estimate a project’s profitability before its execution.
關鍵字:Project performance; Profitability; Return on sales; Forecasting; Robust regression; longitudinal study
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2013). Logit models for early warning of distressed capital projects. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(sup1), 145-167. (SSCI, 2013 Impact Factor: 0.810, Ranking: 75/111 in Business, 162/333 in Economics)
年度:2013
類別:期刊論文
摘要:The focus of this study is to demonstrate how probabilistic models may be employed to provide early warnings for distressed capital projects. While identifying the key determinants of project performance is important, few studies test discriminatory power of variables for predicting distressed capital projects. Thus, this longitudinal study of 121 capital projects identifies key variables in the initiation and planning phases of projects that differentiate between healthy and distressed projects at completion. Subsequent univariate logistic analysis shows that the Quality variable provides the highest univariate classification accuracy. Hierarchical logistic-regression analysis reveals high classification accuracy and relatively small differences in overall classification rates. Out-of-sample forecasting validation demonstrates that the optimal model provides a reasonably good overall classification rate of 85.37%. Ultimately, our findings suggest that it is feasible to discriminate simultaneously between healthy and distressed projects prior to the project execution phase in the capital facility delivery process, providing an early warning of projects in distress.
關鍵字:capital projects, distressed projects, early warning signs, performance
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2012). "Empirical behavioral analysis of project contractors supply-chain payment terms." Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 17(3), 277-289. (SSCI, 2010 Impact Factor: 2.484, Ranking: 19/103 in Business, 35/144 in Management).
年度:2012
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Purpose – Researchers in supply chain (SC) payment management have long sought to understand how project contractors, project owners, specialist contractors, and suppliers behave in the context of negotiating payment terms that improve contractors supply-chain (SC) cash flow. Design/methodology/approach – Using a single case study approach, semi-structured interviews with contract and project managers identifies behavioral patterns. An analysis of categorical experiments and Spearman’s correlation tests on 118 surveys from Taiwanese project contracting corporations generalizes the case findings. Findings – The findings suggest that payment terms of project owners, specialists, and suppliers have an important impact on contractors’ working capital. The findings also reveal that contractors pass project owners’ payment terms down to specialists and suppliers, suggesting that contractors behavior depends on that of the project owners. Research limitations/implications – This paper generalizes the case findings via surveys but does not assume that the reported behavior patterns apply to all business enterprises. Future research could triangulate our findings. Originality/value – This study combines qualitative and quantitative methods to understand how the project owner-contractor-supplier (or owner-contractor-specialist) triad behaves. Particularly, it focuses on an economic sector—real estate and construction—that receives less research interest than processing or manufacturing.
關鍵字:Payment behavior, Supply chain payment, Project Management, Case study.
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2011) "An empirical examination of project contractors supply-chain cash flow performance and owners payment pattern." International Journal of Project Management, 29(5), 604-614.
年度:2011
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Supply-chain (SC) cash flow performance is an essential component of SC performance management. Despite the panoply of approaches to SC cash flow modeling, relatively few published studies assess the effect of SC cash flow performance on a project contractor’s financial performance. Little research thus explores the behavioral patterns in the project owner-contractor dyad in the context of payment-term negotiation for improving the SC cash flow performance of a project contractor. Using data from 42 Taiwanese construction project contracting corporations, this paper systematically quantifies the effects of SC cash flow performance on the financial performance of construction project contractors. Further analysis using data from 118 returned, useable surveys reveals important behavioral patterns of project owners regarding payment terms with project contractors during the contracting phase of construction projects. These behavioral patterns provide project contractors with a base for supporting implementation efforts for improving SC cash flow performance.
關鍵字:Project contractor; Supply chain performance; Cash flows; Financial performance; Payment behavior
著作名稱:Chen, H. L., (2010). "Using financial and macroeconomic indicators to forecast sales of large development and construction corporations." Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 40(3), 310-331. (SSCI). (The journal is ranked at level A by NSC FINANCE/ACCOUNTING area; 國科會A級期刊).
年度:2010
類別:期刊論文
摘要:Sales forecasting is a pivotal component of a corporation’s planning and control activities. Despite the panoply of approaches to sales forecasting, relatively few published studies in forecasting address firm-specific sales forecasting model development for the construction industry. While there is evidence that events in the macroeconomy significantly affect the construction market, most published studies on construction sales forecasts using S-curve models are unable to account for the economic climate. This study proposes an approach that employs financial and macroeconomic indicators to forecast sales of large development and construction corporations. First, by using data for 37 large development and construction firms listed on the construction sector of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2006, hypothesis tests uncover useful relationships between firm sales and financial and macroeconomic indicators. Second, based on these relationships, a two-stage mathematical modeling procedure is used to develop firm-specific sales forecasting models for three of the sample firms. Finally, out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is evaluated using Theil’s U-statistic and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
關鍵字:Sales forecasting; Financial and macroeconomic indicators; Time series; Regression analysis
著作名稱:Performance measurement and forecasting of failing manufacturing companies
年度:2017
類別:期刊論文
摘要:The purpose of this study is to investigate the implications of corporate bankruptcy and to construct a corporate bankruptcy classification model. By using data from 148 bankrupt and non-bankrupt manufacturing firms listed on the 22 industrial sectors of the Taiwan Stock Exchange, hypothesis tests first indentify key financial ratios that distinguish bankrupt from nonbankrupt companies. Second, this study performs an isolated model analysis of each dimension of financial performance construct to evaluate the ability of the set of financial ratios to their associated dimension. Third, this study conducts a hierarchical logistic-regression analysis using a maximum Nagelkerke R-squared improvement procedure to develop optimal bankruptcy classification models from the overall bankruptcy measurement model. The empirical results show that the bankruptcy model possesses high classification accuracy one year before bankruptcy and relatively small differences in classification rates between in-sample and out-of-sample as compared to recent bankruptcy studies. As such, the combined financial ratio analysis and measurement theory with hierarchical logistic-regression analysis appear to be robust for developing bankruptcy models where companies represent a wide cross-section of industries.
關鍵字:Bankruptcy, Failure, Probability of Default, Forecasting
著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2009). "A longitudinal cross-sectional analysis of the relationships between sales flows and financial and macroeconomic variables." International Conference in Management Sciences and Decision Making, pp. 89-96, Taipei, Taiwan.
年度:2009
類別:研討會
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著作名稱: Chen, H. L. (2008). "Developing sales response models for technological product sales forecasting." International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems and Web Technologies, pp. 120-126, Orlando, USA
年度:2008
類別:研討會
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著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2007 Section chair). "Integrated cost-payment-schedules model for project cost flow predictions and management." The 8th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering & Management System, p. 238 (11 pages), Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
年度:2007
類別:研討會
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著作名稱:Chen, H. L. (2007). "Analyzing the contractors’ supply chain payment conditions." Sixth Annual SCALE Conference on Supply Chain Optimization, p.9 (10 pages), Florida, USA.
年度:2007
類別:研討會
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著作名稱:Chen, H. L. and Chen, W. T. (2006) "Combining time series and multivariate regression analysis for sales predictions," Society of Advanced Management (SAM) 2006 International Business Conference, pp.1370-1377, Florida, USA.
年度:2006
類別:研討會
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著作名稱:Chen, W.T., Chen, H.L., Chang, P.-Y., and Wang, T.-J. (2005). "A Performance Evaluation Model for Construction Value Engineering Study." 1st International Conference on Construction Engineering and Management (ICCEM), Seoul, Korea, Oct. 16-19, pp. 347-352.
年度:2005
類別:研討會
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